Top Farmer Midday Update 8-16-19

CORN: Corn futures are trading moderately higher into the mid-morning, finding some short covering and some support on continued talk of lower yields. Sep corn is up 5 cents to 3.65-3/4, Dec corn is up 4-3/4 to 3.75-3/4, and Mar corn is up 4-1/2 to 3.88. The Dec corn contract has lost over 40 cents so far this week, and it's not much of a surprise that those on the right side of the worst week in contract history are looking to take profits before the weekend. The Dec contract traded yesterday within 5-1/4 cents of the contract low made on May 13. DTN Gro Intelligence is in the midst of a digit crop tour this week, and they pegged IL, IN, and OH corn yields this year between 24 and 28 bushels per acre below the current USDA yield estimates for those states. Forecasts look mostly non-threatening at this point. Speculative funds bought about 2,000 contracts of corn yesterday.

SOYBEANS: Soybean futures are trading moderately higher today and are retesting their overhead resistance levels. Sep beans are up 5 cents to 8.63, Nov is up 4-1/2 cents to 8.75-1/4, and Jan beans are up 4-3/4 to 8.89. Yesterday's NOPA Crush report was supportive, with crush coming in near the high end of market estimates and soybean oil stocks coming in near the low end of market estimates. The strong crush pace lately could potentially bring about higher revisions in USDA's crush numbers in future Supply and Demand reports. China has purchased 1.5 to 2 million metric tonnes of Brazilian beans this week and more are likely in the near-term future. Nov beans traded as high this morning as 8.80-3/4 but have since backed off below their 10-day moving average resistance level. Open interest jumped yesterday which could indicate that speculative funds are building a net-short position. Funds were thought to have sold about 5,000 contracts of beans yesterday.

WHEAT: Wheat markets are slightly higher this morning, with Sep Chi wheat up 1/2 cent to 4.69-1/2, Sep KC wheat is up 1-1/4 cents to 3.91, and Sep spring wheat is up 1-1/2 cents to 5.04-1/4. Winter wheat spreads had a sharp reversal higher yesterday which could indicate growing strength in the KC markets. However, weak global prices are keeping buyer interest somewhat limited and Ukraine grain shipments are running 41% ahead of last year's pace. Sep Chi wheat has traded within a range of only 4-3/4 cents today in a very quiet morning. Sep KC wheat has traded within a 5-1/2 cent range and Sep spring wheat has been within a 4-cent range. The Sep winter wheat spread is up a penny this morning in follow through on yesterday's 9-3/4 cent jump. Speculators were thought to have sold about 3,000 contracts of wheat yesterday.

CATTLE: Cattle markets are slightly higher this morning, with Aug lives up 50 cents to 100.70, Oct lives are up 37 cents to 98.90, and Dec lives are up 25 cents to 104.52. Aug feeders are up 25 cents to 136.02 and Sep feeders are up 40 cents to 133.70. Retail beef values continue to rally while cash trade is sliding. This should keep the slaughter pace relatively high as packer margins increase quickly. Cash values have fallen more than $5.00 this week and beef values are at their highest prices in two years. Oct live cattle have traded within yesterday's price range for the entire session and Sep feeders have done the same. Live cattle are still sharply oversold while the feeders have bounced out of oversold levels after sharp losses this week.

HOGS: Hog markets are mixed this morning, with Oct up 30 cents to 65.30, Dec is down 10 cents to 63.65, and Feb hogs are up 17 cents to 70.42. The lack of buyer interest today is somewhat disappointing considering solid export sales numbers this week including a large sale to China. Carcass cutout values are rallying while the CME Lean Hog Index is falling. The strong packer margins may be seen as keeping domestic pork supplies plentiful. Oct hogs briefly tested their overhead 10-day moving average resistance level today but have since fallen back and are trading just off the lows of the session.

Market Commentary provided by:

Total Farm Marketing
137 South Main Street, West Bend, WI 53095
Phone: 800-334-9779